The Math of Predictability: Answering "When Will It Be Done?" with Confidence
“We have gut-feel estimates that fail the moment uncertainty strikes. We want to have probabilistic forecasting that accounts for real-world variability.”
Ditch the Crystal Ball
Replace "average velocity" with data-driven confidence intervals and spot bottlenecks before they kill your deadline.
Monte Carlo Simulations
Replace gut-feel estimates with data-driven confidence intervals that account for real-world variability.
Flow Metrics
Use Cycle Time and work-in-progress limits to spot bottlenecks before they kill your deadline—and see exactly where work gets stuck in your pipeline.
Evidence-Based Management
Stop measuring activity and start measuring outcomes. Use EBM to track what leadership actually cares about: time-to-market, customer satisfaction, and whether delivery is improving.
Audience Feedback
What attendees say about this topic from 7 presentations.
“Learning about Monte Carlo and EBM are great tools you can use with teams, to help them improve their practices. Fred's session includes an interactive simulation that helps you explore how the simulation works and how it can be applied to your team(s). Fantastic!”
“I enjoyed learning about the multiple ways I can determine probability of work from developers to give my stakeholders confidence of when things will be ready for production.”
“This session taught relevant data based techniques for planning! I loved the interactive miro, and tools that can be brought to the team, leadership and stakeholders.”
Related Talks & Appearances
Conference sessions and media appearances on this topic.
Conference Sessions
Achieving Predictable Delivery
- Kansas City Developers Conference (KCDC) 2025
- Agile Lean Ireland 2024
- DeliveryFest 2024
- Regional Scrum Gathering Ghent 2024
Podcasts & Media
Agile Metrics Mashup
YouTube Series
Zelda's Guide to Agile
Talk Recording
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