The Math of Predictability: Answering "When Will It Be Done?" with Confidence
“We have gut-feel estimates that fail the moment uncertainty strikes. We want to have probabilistic forecasting that accounts for real-world variability.”
Ditch the Crystal Ball
Replace "average velocity" with data-driven confidence intervals and spot bottlenecks before they kill your deadline.
Monte Carlo Simulations
Replace gut-feel estimates with data-driven confidence intervals that account for real-world variability.
Flow Metrics
Use Cycle Time and work-in-progress limits to spot bottlenecks before they kill your deadline—and see exactly where work gets stuck in your pipeline.
Evidence-Based Management
Stop measuring activity and start measuring outcomes. Use EBM to track what leadership actually cares about: time-to-market, customer satisfaction, and whether delivery is improving.
Audience Feedback
What attendees say about this topic from 10 presentations.
“The relevance to my work and the language you use as a scrum master really feels like conversations we have all the time. You and I are similar in spirit. Thanks for putting the game to illustrate and the website work is impressive.”
“I am still struggling with the Monte Carlo Exercise and how to apply it at work, but the presentation was the best one I have heard in my 11 years of project management”
“Being able to combine the triforce - i used the Monte Carlo forecasting on its own, but having it be supported by the other two parts will be helpful in the future”
Related Talks & Appearances
Conference sessions and media appearances on this topic.
Conference Sessions
- PMI Agile 20262026
- PMI Milwaukee2026
- Global Scrum Gathering Vancouver 20262026
- Kansas City Developer Conference2025
- Scrum Masters of the Universe2024
- Agile Brigade2024
- Agile Lean Ireland2024
- Ignite Agility2024
- FlutterUKI2024
- Agile International2024
Podcasts & Media
Agile Metrics Mashup
YouTube Series
Zelda's Guide to Agile
Talk Recording
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